Mr. Lawson, a very informative, interesting and timely article. There's no question that current situation in Afghanistan is extremely complex and volatile for all the reasons that you have mentioned. There are far too many external players and interests that will make any sort of lasting peace very elusive.

On a side note, I had the opportunity to serve in Afghanistan in 2011-2012 and it was abundantly clear back then that President Karzai had zero influence outside the Kabul city limits. As a matter of fact, many people referred to him as the "Mayor of Kabul."